Myers Capital Management

Refocusing Your Future

Refocusing Your Future

facebooklinkedin

  • Home
  • About
    • The Team
    • You Deserve More!
    • The Next Step
  • Investment Planning
    • Investing Today
    • Our Approach
    • Our Process
    • Values Based Investing
  • Financial Planning
    • Plan Your Future
    • Your Retirement
    • Protecting Your Assets
  • Wealth Planning
    • Overview
    • Custom Portfolios
    • Cash Management
    • Wealth Transfer
  • Myers Cap Post
  • Client Center
    • Account Access
    • Schedule Appointment
    • Quarterly Market Review
    • Forms
    • Tax Center
    • Helpful Information
    • Helpful Websites
    • Financial Calculators
  • Office

February Unemployment Report and Inflation

March 13, 2023 by Paul Myers, Myers Capital Management

The Fed has been raising interest rates to try to lower inflation, which is one of their mandates. There other mandate is to seek full employment. On Friday the Department of Commerce released the employment data for February, and today JP Morgan, one of the Portfolio Strategists we utilize for client accounts, commented on this report in their Weekly Market Recap this morning…

Despite many layoff announcements, the recent unemployment rate and job openings figures, 3.6% and 10.8 million respectively, continued to signal tightness in the labor market. Beneath the surface, there is actually less strength than meets the eye with wages failing to keep pace with inflation the past 23 months. With that said, in his Congressional testimony last week Chair Powell mentioned the need
for wage growth to continue decelerating in order to gain confidence that core services inflation excluding housing is finally showing signs of softening.


Wage growth is a critical data point given its relationship with core services prices. Statistical analysis shows that wage growth has a more discernable impact on core services inflation than the unemployment rate. On Friday, we saw average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees increase 0.2% month-over-month in February and 4.6% year-over-year. This is the second slowest monthly wage growth we have seen since March 2021. While trending in the right direction, in the long run, wage growth closer to 3.5% would be required to achieve and sustain the Fed’s 2% inflation target. A wider mosaic of labor market statistics shows a broad deceleration, but compensation growth remains at elevated levels. As a result, the Fed is signaling that it is likely to take rates higher and keep them there for longer than previously expected. While the bond market is now better pricing in this path for rates, the equity market may see some volatility ahead given the increased odds that the Fed goes too far and ends up pushing the economy into recession.

Filed Under: Myers Cap Post

paul-intro

Schedule Introductory Meeting

The Myers Cap Post

  • Leading Economic Index Again Declines in February
  • Fed Decision And The Banking Crisis
  • Fed Raises Interest Rates Again Today
  • Inflation Lower In February
  • Banking Crisis Averted, But Risks Remain
  • February Unemployment Report and Inflation
  • February Suggests We May Not Be In A Recession Yet
  • January Retail Sales Jump
  • Recession… Is It Coming Or Here Already?
  • Opportunity in Growth, Value, or Both?
logocrpc

Location & Office Hours

(215) 657-0300

facebooklinkedin

WARRANTIES & DISCLAIMERS :
There are no warranties implied.
Myers Capital Management, Inc. (“MCMI”) is a registered investment adviser located in Abington, PA. MCMI’s website is limited to disseminating general information about its advisory services and access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of MCMI’s website on the Internet should not be construed by any consumer or prospective client as MCMI’s general solicitation to effect or attempt to effect transactions in securities or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation. We do not collect personally identifiable information about you when you visit our website unless you voluntarily provide it by sending us an email or other electronic communication(s). If you choose to share with us personal information, we will retain it in our electronic communications archive. Any subsequent, direct communication by MCMI with a prospective client shall be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides. MCMI does not take any responsibility, representations, or warranties regarding the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, including website links. All such information is provided solely for convenience, guidance, and informational purposes only, and all users should be guided accordingly. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. This website and information are not intended to provide investment, tax, or legal advice and no warranties are implied. Before implementing any strategy, consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional. Insurance products and services are offered and sold through Myers Capital Management, Inc., and individually licensed and appointed insurance agents. For information about MCMI, please refer to the SEC’s investment adviser public information website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov or upon written request from Myers Capital Management, Inc. No product or service is offered or will be sold in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation, purchase, or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. This web site is intended to be made available only to individuals in the United States, and the information on the web site is only for such persons. • Copyright Myers Capital Management, Inc.
[Home]    [website design]