Last week I was in a meeting with Dr David Kelly of JP Morgan, one of the Portfolio Strategists we utilize for client accounts. He was discussing their views about where the economy was headed in 2024.
Dr. Kelly used the year 2024 as an acronym to describe the this year’s economy when we review it at the end of the year.
2% inflation for the year, 0% chance of a recession, 2% economic growth, and 4% unemployment.
Of course, no one can predict with absolute certainty how the economy will unfold, and Dr Kelly remarked that very often things we can’t predict can end up having a great impact and alter what is predicted.
But sitting here in January, if the economy does grow at 2% (lower than 2023), avoids a recession, with inflation getting down to the Fed target of 2% and unemployment staying low at 4%, the markets will likely have a good year.
