Today we posted that the monthly unemployment rate increased to 4.4% in March. Even though the rate ticked up, it was mostly in the last week. Below is a chart of unemployment claims.
This chart goes back to 1967 and tracks the weekly unemployment claims. As you can see, the last one blew the roof off of anything we have ever seen.
The shaded regions are recessions. As you can see, the weekly initial jobless claims typically start rising during and increase in recessions, but this one came out of the blue because of the social distancing.
We expect these claims and unemployment will continue to rise because of the nature of this virus induced coming recession until medical intervention turns the tables on the virus and the economy. This could be sooner or later. Only time will tell how long until the economy and markets turn around.
