When a huge part of the US economy was shut down last year due to COVID 19, stocks fell as company profits took a big hit in the first and second quarters. As large parts of the economy opened up in the third quarter, profits and stocks rose. In a recent commentary by JP Morgan, one of the Portfolio Strategists we utilize for client accounts, they talk about company profits…
The 4Q20 earnings season kicked off last week, and while better times lie ahead in 2021, the outlook for the final quarter of 2020 remains bleak. With the early reporters in the door (4.6% of market cap), we currently expect 4Q20 S&P 500 earnings per share of $37.31, which would represent a -4.8% contraction from a year ago. If this outcome is realized, it would mark the fourth consecutive quarter of negative growth, as companies that have been under pressure in 2020 continued to struggle into the end of last year. Specifically, energy companies are expected to see earnings per share decline by -112.7% y/y due to lower oil prices, and while consumer discretionary companies should see earnings improve as social distancing measures have been eased, they are still set to decline -21.0% from a year prior. The financial sector is expected to see earnings fall -28.9% y/y due to lower rates and rising loan loss provisions, while sectors such as health care and technology should continue to benefit from pandemic trends. Looking at 2020 as a whole, consensus estimates are calling for earnings to contract -16%, but 2021 earnings should bounce strongly. As the pandemic gradually fades into the background, we expect that this rebound in earnings will allow the more cyclical parts of the market to outperform, but still recognize the need for exposure to structural growth trends in the long run.
