Recently the Institute of Supply Management released their findings on the growth of the US manufacturing and service sectors for the month of August.
ISM reported that both the manufacturing and service sectors of the US economy continued to expand in August. Manufacturing business rate of expansion remained the same as it was in July while the service sectors rate of expansion increased slightly.
As you look the chart above showing the year to date data, you can see the rate of growth has slowed up as the increase of interest rates by the Fed have their impact of businesses. Numbers over 50 show growth, so we are really not in a recession at this point.
However, unless inflation tapers off enough for the Fed to slow and eventually stop the increasing of interest rates, we are likely to see these figures dip under 50 into contraction at some point. But as August’s numbers show, we are not there at this time.