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Growth May Be Slowing

June 27, 2022 by Paul Myers, Myers Capital Management

Though the actual numbers have not yet been announced, initial data suggests that economic growth may have slowed in the month of June. In this week’s market recap, JP Morgan, one of the Portfolio Strategists we utilize for client accounts, discusses how this plays into the questions of whether a recession is coming, and if it is, what it may be like…

As investors mull the increasing odds of a U.S. recession, data out last week confirmed a recent weakening in the economy. The June flash PMIs showed larger-than-anticipated declines in the headline measures with many key details deteriorating. In the manufacturing survey, the headline composite fell from 57.0 in May to 52.4, with a sharp weakening in the important measures tied to new orders and output. The services sector also showed signs of softness, with the headline composite declining from 53.4 in May to 51.6 and the measure of new business dropping 7.5pts—the largest decline since the onset of the pandemic. With consumer sentiment at a record low level, these data show that the economy is now seeing the impact of higher commodity prices and higher interest rates on demand. However, there are few signs of weakening in the labor market so far with initial jobless claims edging down to 229,000 over the past week.


For investors, the unusual juxtaposition of pent-up demand for goods and services and excess demand for labor with a clear softening in retail sales and consumer confidence makes it very challenging to conclude if we are on the brink of a recession. However, if we are, there’s no reason to expect that it will be nearly as severe as the last two. Moreover, since the economy spends the majority of the time in
expansion, for long-term investors, it is ultimately more important to be well-positioned for expansions than to try to tactically trade around recessions.

Filed Under: Myers Cap Post

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The Myers Cap Post

  • House and Senate Pass Bill To Raise Debt Ceiling
  • Why Are Stocks Positive For The Year If Recession Is Coming?
  • The Debt Ceiling Deadline
  • How Will Stocks React To A Coming Recession?
  • The Debt Ceiling Debate
  • Inflation Continues to Decline In April
  • Employment, Inflation, The Fed, Interest Rates, And Slowing Economic Growth
  • Fed Raises Interest Rates… Is This the End?
  • Economy Grows But Slows In First Quarter
  • Conference Board Predicts Recession Mid 2023
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Myers Capital Management, Inc. (“MCMI”) is a registered investment adviser located in Abington, PA. MCMI’s website is limited to disseminating general information about its advisory services and access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of MCMI’s website on the Internet should not be construed by any consumer or prospective client as MCMI’s general solicitation to effect or attempt to effect transactions in securities or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation. We do not collect personally identifiable information about you when you visit our website unless you voluntarily provide it by sending us an email or other electronic communication(s). If you choose to share with us personal information, we will retain it in our electronic communications archive. Any subsequent, direct communication by MCMI with a prospective client shall be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides. MCMI does not take any responsibility, representations, or warranties regarding the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, including website links. All such information is provided solely for convenience, guidance, and informational purposes only, and all users should be guided accordingly. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. This website and information are not intended to provide investment, tax, or legal advice and no warranties are implied. Before implementing any strategy, consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional. Insurance products and services are offered and sold through Myers Capital Management, Inc., and individually licensed and appointed insurance agents. For information about MCMI, please refer to the SEC’s investment adviser public information website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov or upon written request from Myers Capital Management, Inc. No product or service is offered or will be sold in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation, purchase, or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. This web site is intended to be made available only to individuals in the United States, and the information on the web site is only for such persons. • Copyright Myers Capital Management, Inc.
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